Near future for ammo availability


In another thread recently there was talk about U.S. ammunition production capacity and global production capacity. How things have increased over the past 10 years and have strained to meet demand due to military action and all the hoarding from a couple years ago in the U.S. ahead of, and after the election. I’m wondering what other people think about 2 to 3 years from now as far as commercial ammo and military surplus ammo availability?

It’s just my guess, but I believe we are going to see an explosion of commercial & military ammo in about 2 to 3 years, and at prices not seen in 10 years despite of inflation & commodity expenses. Reasons include:

–Things in Iraq & Afghanistan will finally be winding down.
–The plants in the U.S. will finally reach peak production, but wont have the demand for it globally since the Russians and everyone else have been upgrading capacity of production as well.
–Assuming a Republican is elected president, then all the ammo hoarders will exhale and probably start selling off some hoarded ammo since the economy probably wont yet be improved much and plenty of people will need the money.
–The silly 2012 doomsday thing will pass without any apocalypse and the guys in their bunkers will exhale and loosen their grip on hoarded ammo by then.

There should be tons of M855 coming around since we switched to that new upgraded 5.56 load that is lead free. I’m already seeing infinite amounts of the Federal version of it being listed on the auction sites in 300rd lots. The prices keep going a little lower.


Iraq and Afganistan have had no effect on the supply of civilian ammunition except to deprive us in years to come of cheap milspec surplus.

What is more apparant is the fact that dealers don’t have the cash flow to fill their shelves and are resorting to excuses to explain their empty shelves.

Hoarding has created long term supply problems. People who have stocked up in the past year with five years supply will not be going back to buy more and the dealers will not be able to weather the lean times to come.

In any business cash flow is king. They need to do business every month to pay their overheads. Not seeing the customers for another few years means that for most of them they will not be there in 2015.

When “Joe” finally runs out of ammunition and goes back to buy some more he will find that what used to be a gunshop is now a “Dunkin’ Donuts” outlet.